The EU Emissions Trading Scheme is driving up heating costs – homeowners face a wave of expenses.
Starting in 2027, homeowners in the EU are threatened with drastic additional costs. The reason for this is the expanded EU Emissions Trading Scheme, which will make fossil fuel heating significantly more expensive. Those who still heat with oil or gas will have to expect thousands of euros in additional expenses in the future. Properties that are poorly renovated are particularly affected. An analysis by Purpose Green shows how expensive the new system can become. The EU Emissions Trading Scheme hits unrenovated buildings especially hard.
Currently, the CO₂ price in Germany is 55 euros per ton. In the future, this value will be determined by supply and demand. By 2030, experts expect up to 149 euros. In the extreme case – at 400 euros – a single-family home in Hamburg would incur more than 3,100 euros in additional annual costs. The impact is even greater for rented old buildings. For poorly insulated multi-family houses, the burden can rise to almost 46,000 euros. The energy condition of the building remains the decisive factor. While owners of unrenovated buildings bear almost all the costs, in renovated properties the burden shifts to tenants. The aim of this regulation is to accelerate modernization. However, many owners are reluctant to invest.
Gaps in funding slow down efficiency measures. Despite support programs for heat pumps and heating system modernization, the renovation rate remains low. In 2024, only 0.69 percent of residential buildings were energetically renovated. The reasons are high costs, a lack of climate money, and uncertain framework conditions. Without additional government support, the transformation of the building sector continues to stagnate.
Many homeowners feel overwhelmed in the face of rising interest rates and construction costs. Large landlords are also under pressure. Without targeted relief, investment backlogs threaten, which tenants will have to bear through higher ancillary costs. The EU Emissions Trading Scheme places a particular burden on the middle class.
The new emissions trading system exacerbates the situation in an already strained housing market. Owners who have not renovated in time are coming under massive pressure. Brussels is deliberately relying on price pressure instead of bans, but without social compensation, the plan becomes a financial trap.
In the long term, the market is intended to reduce CO₂ emissions. But in the short term, millions of households will face increased financial burdens. If climate money is lacking, social tensions threaten in cities with many old buildings.
