Brussels is planning its next move against its own farmers: a new sanctions package targeting Russian fertilizers is on the horizon.
What initially appears to be another blow to Putin’s war chest could potentially backfire on European agriculture.The EU Commission’s plans read like a recipe for the next farmer protest. They propose either substantial tariffs or, if the German Foreign Ministry has its way, a complete embargo on Russian fertilizers.
Green party’s politics make farmers suffer
The Green Party is advocating for the strictest approach. The numbers speak for themselves: Russia supplies 28 percent of European nitrogen fertilizers. The loss of these imports would destabilize an already strained system. Since the Ukraine war, European fertilizer producers have been grappling with skyrocketing gas prices, with their production capacity currently at only 80 percent of normal operations.
Monica Marucci from the European Fertilizer Observatory succinctly summarizes the situation:
“In 2022, Europe experienced a 70 percent decline in nitrogen fertilizer production capacity.”
This situation is currently intensifying. LAT Nitrogen’s withdrawal from the German market at the end of 2024 was just the tip of the iceberg. Farmers have already taken preemptive action. Instead of the usual 60-65 percent, they have only covered 40-45 percent of their fertilizer needs for 2024-25. The prices are telling: in early January alone, the price of urea rose by 75 euros per ton to 525 euros.
New forming alliance
While diplomats in Brussels are still haggling over the details of the sanctions, a remarkable alliance is forming. Surprisingly, Hungary and Slovenia are the only countries officially expressing concerns about the impact on agriculture. The rest of the EU family remains silent – a silence that could prove costly for our farmers. The irony of the situation is palpable: while the EU Commission claims to be “preserving global food security” with these sanctions, as emphasized by EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, this very security could be jeopardized by rising fertilizer prices and declining yields. European farmers may well be wondering if, after protesting against excessive environmental regulations, they now have another reason to bring their tractors out of the barn.
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