According to the authors of a new study, proposed technological interventions to halt the melting of ice are unrealistic, prohibitively expensive, and potentially environmentally harmful.
Originally published : Transition News, 11 September 2025
Forty-six polar scientists have just delivered a sobering verdict on ambitious plans that promise to save the Earth’s melting ice through massive technological interventions. These plans, they conclude, are not feasible, unaffordably costly, and could introduce new and serious environmental risks.
The analysis, published in Frontiers in Science and reported by Study Finds, examined five major proposals that have made headlines as potential solutions to the rapid ice loss in the Arctic and Antarctic. These ranged from spraying particles into the atmosphere by aircraft to block sunlight, to constructing underwater barriers that would shield glaciers from warm ocean water.
After assessing scientific feasibility, environmental risks, and governance challenges, the international research team concluded that none of these concepts should be seriously considered in the coming decades. The authors summarize: “We believe that the proposed concepts would be environmentally harmful. To us, it is clear that the evaluated approaches are not feasible.” Martin Siegert of the University of Exeter, who led the study together with experts from six continents, argues that such proposals raise false hopes while potentially delaying genuine climate solutions.
Even the most technically achievable option, stratospheric aerosol injection, was judged by the researchers to be completely ineffective. The idea involves airplanes releasing particles into the upper atmosphere to reflect sunlight back into space, mimicking the temporary cooling effect seen after volcanic eruptions. However, the study found that this would have no impact during polar winters, when there is no sunlight to block. The scientists estimate that this approach would require 60,000 flights annually, with operating costs running into the billions.
More dramatic schemes scored even worse. One proposal envisioned building underwater “curtains” to prevent warm ocean currents from reaching Antarctic glaciers. According to the authors’ estimates, such barriers could cost as much as 80 billion dollars for an 80-kilometer-long section over a ten-year period. The work would take place in some of the most inaccessible waters on Earth. Research shows that 56 percent of expeditions to these regions were at least partly disrupted by sea ice or faced major difficulties entering or leaving, while 22 percent failed to reach the area at all.
Several concepts also involved deliberately introducing materials into fragile polar ecosystems. For instance, one plan called for spreading glass beads across Arctic sea ice to boost its reflectivity. The study cites research suggesting that “about 360 megatons of glass beads” would be required annually. The Arctic Ice Project, which aimed to test this technology, was recently halted after ecotoxicological tests revealed potential risks to the Arctic food web.
The authors underline that all the proposals carry huge ecological uncertainties. Antarctica is governed by an international treaty system that requires consensus among dozens of nations. Any large-scale intervention would need approval from this system, which has never authorized projects of the proposed scale. At the latest Antarctic Treaty Conference, also cited in the study, nations recommended “caution in geoengineering activities and refraining from applying geoengineering methods in Antarctica at this time, as their environmental impacts remain unknown.”
The Arctic faces different challenges. Most of the region falls under the national jurisdiction of the eight Arctic coastal states, including Russia, where current geopolitical tensions make coordinated action unlikely. Indigenous communities, whose traditional ways of life depend heavily on polar ecosystems, have already expressed firm opposition to such interventions.
In terms of financial costs, Study Finds summarized: “The financial calculations alone are staggering. Beyond initial costs amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars, most proposals would require continuous operation and maintenance for decades or even centuries.” If such programs were ever halted, the authors warn of a “termination shock,” described as the rapid and severe warming that could occur if a future large-scale deployment of solar geoengineering were suddenly stopped while greenhouse gas emissions continued.
The research team also identifies an unsettling pattern: fossil fuel companies are funding geoengineering research while simultaneously expanding oil and gas production. The article draws a parallel to how “tobacco companies once promoted filter cigarettes as a way to reduce cancer risk without addressing tobacco consumption itself.”
Instead, the authors advocate for “rapid decarbonization” to achieve net-zero emissions. According to climate scenario models they cite, current policy measures already offer about a one-in-five chance of limiting warming to 1.5 °C if fully implemented. Stricter measures, they note, would raise the probability to about four-in-five for keeping warming under 2 °C. The researchers also call for expanding protected areas in polar regions.
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Frontiers in Science: Safeguarding the polar regions from dangerous geoengineering: a critical assessment of proposed concepts and future prospects – 9. September 2025
Study Finds: Scientists Warn: Polar Geoengineering Fixes Could Backfire Disastrously – 9. September 2025
