Mega Tsunami but only a vague thesis –
In 1998, the English geologist Dr Simon Day put forward the theory that one of the next volcanic eruptions on La Palma would cause a mega tsunami. This mega tsunami would destroy the east coast of the USA.
Source: Manfred Betzwieser, 24 March 2022
The entire western flank of the island, with around 3 to 4 cubic kilometres of rock, could break off and slide into the Atlantic. It was a fantastic story and a horror story, which at the time was the subject of worldwide press and television coverage. Film reports from the BBC and other broadcasters depicted the horror scenario in gloomy reports and animated graphics.
No disaster scenario according to Dr Simon Day
Now we’ve had the eruption of the Cabeza volcano on the western flank of La Palma and nothing has happened. No landslide and no tsunami. Dr Simon Day was also working on a report for an American insurance company at the time, and the result was supposed to persuade coastal residents in the USA to take out tsunami insurance. Deception and manipulation of the masses, a business model used by many insurance companies. Fear is still a good way to do business.
At the time, I had visited the supposed fissure in many reports and local inspections to get my own impression. As a professional non-geologist, I was never able to understand and confirm the Day thesis. Here is an example from 2013 for you to read.
There is a fissure running southwards from the San Juan volcano. It is up to 2 metres wide, but only a few centimetres wide further south. However, the depth of this fissure has never been measured. I estimate a maximum depth of 4 or 5 metres. Simon Day’s theory is based on the assumption that the fissure extends to the seabed.
Normally, the current volcanic eruption – the magma channels ran through this fissure area – would have caused completely different reactions. The ingressed seawater would have expanded the fissure explosively and led to at least a partial collapse of the west coast. Instead, the seawater that probably entered vaporised via the vent and did not lead to the prophesied apocalypse.
Once again, we are glad that the theories put forward do not prove to be true and that even experts such as geologists can be wrong. Nobody is infallible, even if they call themselves experts.
11.40 a.m. – Cabildo La Palma: We will not evict any victims from the hotels as long as they have no accommodation solution. There are still 430 people living in hotels and holiday accommodation.
❗️No desalojaremos a ningún damnificado de los hoteles mientras no tenga una solución habitacional
🔗Léelo completo en: https://t.co/Z0PaWs12bc#RecuperarLaPalma pic.twitter.com/NIfLZTj9sx
– Cabildo de La Palma (@CabLaPalma) March 24, 2022
11.50 am – Tazacorte offers urban land for the construction of 168 new houses. Housing shortage has been a problem in the municipality of Tazacorte for years, but it has been exacerbated by the volcanic eruption that washed away numerous houses with lava. To alleviate this situation, the town council has made a municipal plot of land available to the Canary Islands government on which 168 new homes could be built.
1.20 pm – Around 6000 readers a day on this page. Get in touch on the comments page again, otherwise I’ll lose the desire to continue reporting.
17.00 – Yes, it’s like putting balm or oil in the gears that keeps the business running. Thank you very much for the encouragement.
18.00 – Spectacular image of the La Palma volcano from space. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory
Friday, 25 March 2022
8.50 a.m. – Since last night, more seismic tremors have been registered again. According to Involcan, “These long-lasting seismic events do not reflect a process of magmatic intrusion, but a release of hydrothermal fluids caused by the cooling of the magmatic chamber. So far, more than 60 small events have been recorded at depths of about 10-13 km”.
At 7.53 am, an ML2.6 magnitude quake from a depth of 10 kilometres under Fuencaliente. Let’s hope that the Involcan is right with its forecast and that the lava chunks don’t fly around our ears again.
2.20 p.m. – The earthquake swarm, which continues, cannot be interpreted exactly. It’s all happening at a depth of 10 to 16 kilometres. But it is very unusual. No special features can be observed on the surface or at the crater of Cabeza.
Saturday, 26 March 2022
8.45 am – This is the location of the minor earthquakes that have been recorded by the IGN in the last few days under the southern part of La Palma. All quakes originate from a depth of 5 – 13 km.
10.15 a.m. – AEMET weather warning for storms and heavy rain. From Saturday evening and for Sunday.
10.30 am – More than 10 actions “against lava” are underway on La Palma to try to restore the connections that the volcano has destroyed. Among them, the route in La Laguna, the first point where the machinery began to work 48 hours after the end of the eruption, and which aims to achieve a direct connection with the south of the island. After weeks of waiting, the PEINPAL Technical Committee will announce this Monday the route that the island institution will take to connect La Laguna and Las Norias.
It is the Cabildo’s alternative to the coastal road that the state will carry out as an emergency route. An action that seeks to restore a route that is as similar as possible to the one that connected Los Llanos with Puerto Naos before 19 September 2021. “It’s not going to be easy”, says Infrastructure Minister Borja Perdomo, adding that “the temperature is quite high in this area, but we’re not going to stop and we’ll get there sooner or later”.
11.00 a.m. – IGN scientists continue to measure the concentration and flow of CO2 in the neighbourhood of La Bombilla on the island of La Palma, recording harmful levels at various points.
El personal científico del IGN continúa con la medición de concentración y flujo de CO2 en el barrio de #LaBombilla en la isla de #LaPalma, registrando valores nocivos para la salud en varios puntos.#IGNSpain #VigilanciaVolcánica #Volcanología @mitmagob @CabLaPalma @112canarias pic.twitter.com/haQ1R6Fq8o
– IGN-CNIG (@IGNSpain) March 25, 2022
12.00 – Series of burglaries in the volcano exclusion zone – The neighbourhood associations affected by the Las Manchas volcano, La Laguna, Todoque, El Remo and La Bombilla, show the concern of the residents of the still evacuated areas due to the wave of robberies committed in them denouncing the lack of vigilance of the competent authorities.
They also call on the authorities to clarify the criteria for access to the areas indicated, as “we do not understand how the owners who have entered their homes could have knowledge of it on the ground when access to them is completely restricted “. “We do not understand why some people have access and others with vital needs do not,” they complain.
13:00 – It began with a protest by small transport companies against the rise in diesel prices in Spain. But relatively quickly it turned into a larger strike, which was joined by more and more lorry drivers.
The action was called by a platform of goods transporters, which only represents a small part of the Spanish transport industry. However, according to media reports, some of the protesters are taking a rather brutal approach, blocking access to companies and wholesale warehouses, slashing tyres and throwing stones at lorries that are not taking part in the protests. Many people in Spain are suffering from the consequences of inflation, which is linked to rising energy prices and has worsened following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Some supply chains have already been interrupted due to the strike and supermarkets are running short of fresh produce.
Palmerian bananas pile up in Cadiz and Valencia and were no longer transported. Shipping lines want to suspend their ferry services due to a lack of demand. In the meantime, however, an agreement seems to have been reached with the Spanish government. Subsidies are intended to alleviate the problem.
Sunday, 27 March 2022
10.00 a.m. – The seismographs continue to show unusual activity underground on Sunday morning. The depth cannot be determined exactly, but it should come from the area of the upper magma chamber at a depth of 10 to 13 kilometres. These are tremor-like vibrations that indicate a magma or gas flow. It may be naturally infiltrated groundwater or seawater, which immediately vaporises and expands at the high temperature of 1200 degrees Celsius. One litre of water produces 1673 litres of water vapour, which takes up space and causes these tremors. The activity was particularly noticeable last night between 2am and 4am.
11.30 a.m. – Snow and hail, for the third time in 2022, hit the peaks of La Palma again this Sunday morning, covering the surroundings of Roque de Roque with another icy layer in the first days of spring at minus 2 degrees. The rest of the island is also getting a lot of rain. At the moment it is storming from the west, then again from the south in the evening. It remains to be seen what effect all the rain in the west will have on the lava ash.
Monday, 28 March 2022
9.10 a.m. – Today there are only storms and heavy rain. The entire island is covered in it. Air traffic is partially suspended. No damage or landslides (lava ash) have been reported so far.
Rain in the past 7 days in litres/m²
14.00 – Cabildo La Palma – We report the temporary closure of the road LP-4 Roque de Los Muchachos from Pico de la Nieve to Hoya Grande due to landslides.
16.40 – The Cabildo de La Palma has approved today in the Peinpal Consultative Committee chaired by the head of the Palma institution, Mariano Zapata, the creation of a route that connects the neighbourhood of La Laguna with Las Norias, an action that will begin next Monday, 4 April. “The action will be carried out at all times, taking into account the height of the flows, possible lava tubes and convection temperatures,” added Borja Perdomo. Perdomo explains that the layout of this road “will have a length of 3,287 metres with a maximum longitudinal slope of 10.77% and a minimum slope of 0.93%”.
17:45 – All drivers will receive a discount of 20 cents per litre of fuel. The main measure, according to Sánchez speaking to businessmen at the Europa Press Forum in collaboration with McKinsey & Company, will be to reduce the price of fuel by at least 20 cents per litre for all drivers from 1 April. The government will cover 15 cents and the remaining 5 will be covered by the oil companies, although some have already announced higher cuts. The reduction will be applied directly when filling up at the petrol station.
18:00 – Despite the adverse weather conditions on the island, the first Ryanair flight in the history of La Palma landed today from Santiago de Compostela. After diverting one of its two scheduled flights this morning, the Irish company was able to inaugurate its new travel route to Isla Bonita. I seriously doubt whether this is an enrichment for La Palma.
